Category Archives: Completed


Risk Evaluation in Economic systems (SPbSTU Press, 2005)

A new lecture textbook for МА specializing in economics, mathematical and quantitative methods, macroeconomics and monetary economics. Basic forms of economic system stability and new quantitative methods and approaches to its are considered. Main attention is paid to issues of amount and sufficiency of information in the system. Novel approaches to forecasting and simulations of

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Optimal Exchange Rate (SPbSTU Press, 2004)

Financial stability of national currencies involved in the globalization process requires flexible regulation and control of exchange rate fluctuations dynamics. Government control of currency fluctuations aimed at reducing inflation trends is favorable for economic activity such as forward transactions, business planning, contracts etc. However, in the long term this control prevents national monetary systems from

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Stability of Revenue Flows (SPbSTU Press, 2004)

Analysis of temporal fluctuations of the volume of income taxes collected in St.Petersburg administrative districts has been performed. The dynamics of the analyzed time series has a multiscale noise structure which includes both periodic and stochastic components. Using the Fourier spectral analysis technique, the Hurst’s rescaled range analysis and the Pareto distribution method, we have

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Fractal Structure of Monetary Crashes (SPbSTU Press, 2004)

Nonstationary fractal analysis of currency exchange rate fluctuations in 162 countries with different political, financial and economical systems during the period of 1995-2002 has been conducted. The C.K.Peng’s detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is applied in order to reveal inflation tendencies and unstable regimes in currency dynamics over a broad range of temporal scales (5 minutes

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Basics of Risk Theory (SPbSTU Press, 2002)

Outlines of a lecture course of advanced Economic Risk Theory created for M.A. graduate students specializing in economics, management and business areas. The lecture course summarizes an 8-years experience in adapting and clarifying for economists a number of complicated math theories are presented such as catastrophe theory, fractal theory and fractal analysis techniques. The course

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Economic Risk Theory (SPbSTU Press, 1999)

The modern approaches to forecasting critical conditions and catastrophic events in complex economic systems are introduced. Examples of application of quantitative methods of the economic risk theory to analysis of stability and diagnostics in economic systems based on statistical and/or nonlinear processing of time series are represented. The main attention is devoted to ways of

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Decision making theory (SPbSTU Press, 1999)

Modern mathematical methods and approaches to solving various applied problems in frames of the general decision making theory are considered. The decision making theory deals with the process of optimal alternative selection from a set of possible alternatives and corresponding models. Exposition includes types of conditions for making the decision: full information condition (criteria analysis),

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