Self-organization in US money (Physica A, 2007)

In this study, we continued the research by Serletis and Shintani by applying the method of detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) introduced by Peng and adapted to the analysis of long-range correlations in economic data by Uritskaya to investigate the dynamical structure of United States money and velocity measures. We used monthly data over the time period from 1959:1 to 2006:2, at each of the four levels of monetary aggregation, M1, M2, M3, and MZM, making comparisons among simple-sum, Divisia, and currency equivalent methods of aggregation. The results suggest that the sum and Divisia monetary aggregates are more appropriate for measuring long-term tendencies in money supply dynamics while the currency equivalent aggregates are more sensitive measures of short-term processes in the economy.

Serletis А., Uritskaya O.Y. Detecting Signatures of Stochastic Self-Organization in US Money and Velocity Measures // Physica A, Vol.385 (1), 2007. – p. 281-291.

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Self-Organization_US_Money_Fig_1

Fig. 1. Time series and DFA plots for sum, Divisia, and CE money measures at M1 level of monetary aggregation.

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