Category Archives: Russian

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Criteria of Homeostatic Stability (Management in Social & Economic Systems, 2006)

  From point of view of traditional econometric modeling the critical condition in a system can be obtained under outside factor’s effect. However the reasons of critical events can be found in distinguishing property of these systems: the most economic and particular macroeconomic systems are complex nonlinear dynamical systems with a very special behavior. They can homeostatically tune their regime up in response to any new information or pressure. Using […]

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Stability of Macroeconomic Systems (SPbSTU Press, 2006)

The results of theoretical research of conditions of stability in macroeconomic systems have been presented. Based on review of resent publications it has been shown that the macroeconomic systems are complex interactive systems and their crisis dynamic can be investigated with using of fractal analysis methods. The most stable dynamic state of the macroeconomic complex system is condition of self-organizing criticality, which characterized by fractal structure of corresponded time series […]

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Uncertainty in Making Decisions (SPbSTU Press, 2005)

New edition of the lecture textbook. Main types of models used in the decision-making theory are presented with examples from business practice. The principle attention is paid to the problem of selection of useful information in decision-making process and solving the associated inverse problems. The contents are similar to the 1999 edition. O. Y. Uritskaya. Making Decisions under Risk and Limited Information Conditions // St. Petersburg: SPbSTU Press, 2005, 108 […]

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Planning at the company (SPbSTU Press, 2005)

The main types and organizing forms of companies, their structure, management and planning problems are considered. Examples of mistakes and successes of behavior and decisions at the markets are discussed. Main attention is paid to principles of organizing, financing and management of the company. The textbook is created for M.A. graduate students specializing in economics, management and business areas. O. Y. Uritskaya. Organizing and planning at the company // St. […]

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New Methods in Crisis Modeling (Proc. FISS MASR, 2005)

Results of fractal analysis of daily exchange rate fluctuations of floating currencies for a 10-year period are presented. It is shown that monetary crashes are usually preceded by prolonged periods of abnormal fractal exponent. Regression relations between duration and magnitude of currency crises and the degree of distortion of monofractal patterns of exchange rate dynamics are found and have been used as a basic ingredient of a forecasting technique which […]

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Risk Evaluation in Economic systems (SPbSTU Press, 2005)

A new lecture textbook for МА specializing in economics, mathematical and quantitative methods, macroeconomics and monetary economics. Basic forms of economic system stability and new quantitative methods and approaches to its are considered. Main attention is paid to issues of amount and sufficiency of information in the system. Novel approaches to forecasting and simulations of complex economic systems dynamics and their application examples are presented. O. Y. Uritskaya. Stability and […]

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Optimal Exchange Rate (SPbSTU Press, 2004)

Financial stability of national currencies involved in the globalization process requires flexible regulation and control of exchange rate fluctuations dynamics. Government control of currency fluctuations aimed at reducing inflation trends is favorable for economic activity such as forward transactions, business planning, contracts etc. However, in the long term this control prevents national monetary systems from adapting to changeable global environment and can eventually produce large-scale currency crashes. In this paper, […]

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Stability of Revenue Flows (SPbSTU Press, 2004)

Analysis of temporal fluctuations of the volume of income taxes collected in St.Petersburg administrative districts has been performed. The dynamics of the analyzed time series has a multiscale noise structure which includes both periodic and stochastic components. Using the Fourier spectral analysis technique, the Hurst’s rescaled range analysis and the Pareto distribution method, we have recognized the groups of districts with low and high stability of the 30-day microeconomic cycle. […]

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Fractal Structure of Monetary Crashes (SPbSTU Press, 2004)

Nonstationary fractal analysis of currency exchange rate fluctuations in 162 countries with different political, financial and economical systems during the period of 1995-2002 has been conducted. The C.K.Peng’s detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is applied in order to reveal inflation tendencies and unstable regimes in currency dynamics over a broad range of temporal scales (5 minutes to 90 days). We show for the first time that the fractal structure of exchange […]

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Basics of Decision-Making Theory (SPbSTU Press, 2002)

Overview of the Decision-Making Theory lecture course for B.A. and M.A. graduate students of Management Department of University. A new method of teaching is presented which includes formulating and solving of inverse problems, i.e. providing the proof that given alternative is optimal. Students are given the opportunity to learn about basic stages of modeling and making decision processes, and, what is the most important, about the inherent limitations of quantitative […]

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